Tag: investors

Energy Revolution: A Global Outlook

5 December 2018

Carbon capture

Read the full report [PDF]

The global energy revolution

As a contribution to COP24, this report informs the debate on decarbonising the global energy system, evaluating how rapidly nations are transforming their energy systems, and what lessons can be learned from the leading countries across five energy sectors.

It was commissioned by power utility Drax Group, and delivered independently by researchers from Imperial College London and E4tech.

Clean power

  • Several countries have lowered the carbon content of their electricity by 100 g/kWh over the last decade. The UK is alone in achieving more than
    double this pace, prompted by strong carbon pricing.
  • China is cleaning up its power sector faster than most of Europe, however several Asian countries are moving towards higher-carbon electricity.
  • Germany has added nearly 1 kW of renewable capacity per person over the last decade. Northern Europe leads the way, followed by Japan, the US and China. In absolute terms, China has 2.5 times more renewable capacity than the US.

Fossil fuels

  • Two-fifths of the world’s electricity comes from coal. The share of coal generation is a key driver for the best and worst performing countries in clean power.
  • Coal’s share of electricity generation has fallen by one-fifth in the US and one-sixth in China over the last decade. Denmark and the UK are leading the way. Some major Asian nations are back-sliding.
  • Many European citizens pay out $100 per person per year in fossil fuel subsidies, substantially more than in the US or China. These subsidies are growing in more countries than they are falling.

Electric vehicles

  • In ten countries, more than 1 in 50 new vehicles sold are now electric. China is pushing ahead with nearly 1 in 25 new vehicles being electric and Norway is in a league of its own with 1 in 2 new vehicles now electric, thanks to strong subsidies and wealthy consumers.
  • There are now over 4.5 million electric vehicles worldwide. Two thirds of these are battery electric, one third are plug-in hybrids. China and the US together have two-thirds of the world’s electric vehicles and half of the 300,000 charging points.

Carbon capture and storage

  • Sufficient storage capacity has been identified for global CCS roll-out to meet climate targets, but large-scale CO2 capture only exists in 6 countries.
  • Worldwide, 5 kg of CO2 can be captured per person per year. The planned pipeline of CCS facilities will double this, but much greater scale-up is needed as this represents only one-thousandth of the global average person’s carbon footprint of 5 tonnes per year.

Efficiency

  • Global progress on energy intensity is mixed, as some countries improve efficiency, while others increase consumption as their population become wealthier.
  • Residential and transport changes over the last decade are mostly linked to the global recession and technological improvements, rather than behavioural shift.
  • BRICS countries consume the most energy per $ of output from industry. This is linked to the composition of their industry sectors (i.e. greater manufacturing and mining activity compared to construction and agriculture).

continued … [View PDF]

I. Staffell, M. Jansen, A. Chase, E. Cotton and C. Lewis (2018). Energy Revolution: A Global Outlook. Drax: Selby.

View press release:

UK among world leaders in global energy revolution

Acquisition agreement amended to mitigate risk to 2019 capacity payments

3 December 2018

Investors
RNS Number: 1455J
THIS ANNOUNCEMENT CONTAINS INSIDE INFORMATION

The revised contractual arrangements are designed to mitigate the risk to 2019 capacity payments arising from the recent suspension of the Capacity Market.

Commenting on today’s announcement Will Gardiner, Chief Executive Officer of Drax Group, said:

“The strategic merits of this acquisition remain unchanged and the Board believes there is a compelling logic in our move to add further flexible sources of power to our offering, which will accelerate our ability to deliver our strategic vision of a lower-carbon, lower-cost energy future for the UK.

“The capacity market is a central pillar of the UK’s energy policy and ensures security of supply while minimising costs to consumers. The Government has stated it is working closely with the European Commission to aid their investigation and to reinstate the full capacity market regime, including existing agreements, as soon as possible.

“To mitigate the risk that capacity payments take time to be restored, we have agreed revised terms which provide protection in 2019. Beyond 2019, while reinstatement of the Capacity Market is the most likely outcome, we considered other outcomes, the more plausible of which would still deliver returns in excess of Drax’s weighted average cost of capital.

“The acquisition makes financial and strategic sense, delivering material value to our shareholders through long-term earnings and attractive returns.”

Capacity Market

On 15 November 2018, the General Court of the European Union issued a ruling annulling the European Commission’s 2014 decision not to undertake a more detailed investigation of the UK Government’s scheme establishing the Capacity Market (the “Ruling”). The Ruling imposed a “standstill period” while the European Commission completes a further state aid investigation into the Capacity Market. Payments to generators scheduled under existing capacity agreements and the holding of future capacity auctions have been suspended.

Cruachan Power Station on Loch Awe, Argylle and Bute

Contracted capacity payments make up a significant proportion of the earnings of the Portfolio. For the period from 1 January 2019 to 30 September 2022, the Cruachan pumped storage hydro asset has contracted capacity payments of £29 million, the Galloway run-of-river hydro assets have contracted capacity payments of £5m million, and the Combined Cycle Gas Turbine assets have contracted capacity payments of £122 million in aggregate.

Drax notes the UK Government’s statement in response to the Ruling that it is working closely with the European Commission to aid their investigation and to seek a timely state aid re-approval decision for the Capacity Market. The UK Government also confirmed that the Ruling does not change its belief that Capacity Market auctions are the most appropriate way to deliver secure electricity supplies at the lowest cost and that the Ruling was decided on procedural grounds and did not constitute a direct challenge to the design of the Capacity Market itself.

Based on the information available and legal advice it has received, Drax believes that the most likely outcome is that the European Commission will re-approve the existing Capacity Market in its current or a broadly similar form.

Despite the above, Drax recognises there is some uncertainty whether the contracted capacity payments for the 2018/19 Capacity Market year, which are currently suspended, will be paid by the UK Government. To mitigate the risk that these payments are not received for the 2018/19 Capacity Market year, Drax has agreed with Iberdrola certain amendments to the agreement signed on 16 October 2018.

Arrangements with Iberdrola in respect of 2018/19 capacity payments

Drax and Iberdrola have agreed a risk sharing mechanism in respect of capacity payments for the period 1 January 2019 to 30 September 2019, worth £36 million. If less than 100% of these payments are received and the gross profit of the Portfolio for the full year 2019 (the “2019 Gross Profit”) is lower than expected, Drax will receive a payment from Iberdrola of up to £26 million. The mechanism also gives Iberdrola the opportunity to earn an upside of up to £26 million if less than 100% of these payments are received but the Portfolio performs better than expected in 2019(1).

Under these arrangements, if less than 100% of these capacity payments are received:

  1. Iberdrola will make a payment to Drax if the 2019 Gross Profit is less than £155 million. The payment will be an amount equal to 72% of any shortfall in the 2019 Gross Profit below £155 million. The amount of the payment is capped at the lower of the amount in respect of capacity payments due to the Portfolio but not received and £26 million; and
  2. Drax will make a payment to Iberdrola if the 2019 Gross Profit is more than £165 million. The payment will be an amount equal to 72% of any amount by which the 2019 Gross Profit exceeds £165 million. The amount of the payment is capped at the lower of the amount in respect of capacity payments due to the Portfolio but not received by Drax and £26 million.

If subsequently Drax receives any capacity payments in respect of the period 1 January 2019 to 30 September 2019, Drax will pay 72% of those amounts to Iberdrola capped at the amount paid by Iberdrola to Drax under the mechanism above.

Drax and Iberdrola have agreed that capacity payments due to the Portfolio in respect of the period before completion will be passed through to Iberdrola.

Any payments pursuant to the arrangements with Iberdrola will be cash adjustments to the consideration and not included in EBITDA(2).

Benefits of the acquisition

Based on Drax’s expectations of the position that is most likely to be achieved in relation to the Capacity Market following the Ruling, Drax believes the Acquisition represents an attractive opportunity to create significant value for shareholders and is expected to deliver returns significantly in excess of Drax’s weighted average cost of capital.

Drax has considered other possible outcomes for the Capacity Market which are less likely but may ensue and if they did the financial effects of the Acquisition may be adversely affected.

Drax believes that if the more plausible of these outcomes were to ensue the returns from the Acquisition would still be in excess of the Drax’s weighted average cost of capital.

Drax has not attempted to quantify the effect if the less plausible of these other outcomes were to ensue – if there were no Capacity Market or similar mechanism or if significant structural changes were made to the Capacity Market. Drax sees these as a remote possibility and notes that in those circumstances it believes the loss or reduction of capacity payments could be mitigated by increases in wholesale power prices.

The Acquisition strengthens Drax’s ability to pay a growing and sustainable dividend. Drax remains committed to its capital allocation policy and to its current £50 million share buy-back programme, with £42 million of shares purchased to date.

2019 profit forecast

Daldowie Fuel Plant, Glasgow

Based on recent power and commodity prices and assuming that all contracted capacity payments are received, the Portfolio is expected to generate EBITDA in 2019 in a range of £90 million to £110 million, from gross profits of £155 million to £175 million, of which around two thirds is expected to come from non-commodity market sources, including system support services, capacity payments, ROCs(3) and the Daldowie energy-from-waste plant.

If, in light of the Ruling, the contracted capacity payments payable in 2019 in respect of the Portfolio are not received or accrued in 2019, the expected EBITDA for the Portfolio in 2019 would be reduced by up to £47 million (from a range of £90 million to £110 million) down to a range of £43 million to £63 million before considering mitigating factors. Drax believes that the arrangements agreed with Iberdrola mitigate in economic terms the majority of the risk that those suspended capacity payments will not be paid.

Assuming performance in line with current expectations and if all capacity payments due in 2019 are received before the end of 2019, net debt to EBITDA is expected to fall to Drax’s long-term target of around 2x by the end of 2019. If capacity payments are not received in 2019, net debt to EBITDA is expected to fall to around 2x during 2020.

Drax current trading and 2018 outlook

Following the Ruling, £7 million of contracted capacity payments relating to 2018, principally in relation to Drax’s remaining two coal-fired units, will not be paid as and when expected. Taking this into account, and following Drax’s recent good trading performance and assuming continued good operational availability for the remainder of the year, Drax’s full year EBITDA outlook remains in line with previous expectations, with net debt to EBITDA expected to be around 1.5x for the full year, excluding the impact of the Acquisition.

Process

On 1 November 2018, the Competition and Markets Authority informed Drax that it had no further questions in connection with the proposed Acquisition at that stage, which resulted in the competition condition under the Acquisition agreement being satisfied. Completion of the Acquisition is therefore currently expected to occur on 31 December 2018 assuming that the shareholder approval condition is satisfied by that date.

A combined shareholder circular and notice of general meeting containing the unanimous recommendation of the Board to approve the Acquisition will be posted as soon as practicable.

Other matters

Drax expects to announce its full year results for the year ending 31 December 2018 on 26 February 2019.

Notes

  1. Arrangements with Iberdrola in respect of 2018/19 capacity payments – only applicable if less than 100% of these capacity payments are received. Any payments pursuant to the arrangements with Iberdrola will be cash adjustments to the consideration and not included in EBITDA.Implied EBITDA is included in the table for reference only and is not a metric included in the mechanism, which is based on gross profit.
    The amount of the payment is capped at the lower of the amount in respect of capacity payments due to the Portfolio but not received by Drax and £26 million.
    2019 Gross Profit £mImplied EBITDA based on 2019 Gross Profit £mPayment made to / (by) Drax capped at £26m £m*
    119 or lower54 or lower26
    1296419
    1397412
    149844
    155900
    1651000
    175110-7
    185120-14
    195130-22
    201 or higher136 or higher-26

    *Payment made to / (by) Drax will be classified as a cash adjustment to the consideration rather than as gross profit.
  2. EBITDA means earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, unrealised profits and losses on derivative contracts and material or one-off items that do not reflect the underlying trading performance of the business. 2019 EBITDA is stated before any allocation of Group overheads.
  3. Renewable Obligation Certificates.

Enquiries

Drax Investor Relations:

Mark Strafford
+44 (0) 1757 612 491
+44 (0) 7730 763 949

Media

Drax External Communications:

Matt Willey
+44 (0) 7711 376 087

Ali Lewis
+44 (0) 7712 670 888

J.P. Morgan Cazenove (Financial Adviser and Joint Corporate Broker)

+44 (0) 207 742 6000
Robert Constant
Jeanette Smits van Oyen
Carsten Woehrn

Royal Bank of Canada (Joint Corporate Broker):

+44 (0) 20 7653 4000
James Agnew
Jonathan Hardy

Negative emissions techniques and technologies you need to know about

28 November 2018

Carbon capture

Cutting carbon emissions is the headline environmental policy for the 195 countries signed up to the Paris Climate Agreement – and so it should be. Decarbonisation is crucial to keeping global warming below 2oC and avoiding or at least mitigating potentially dire consequences for our planet, its people and biodiversity.

However, centuries of pumping out carbon dioxide (CO2) from factories, vehicles and power plants means it’s not enough just to reduce output. Countries must also work on CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. Implemented at scale, what’s also known as Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) could mean a country or facility removing more CO2 than it emits – effectively giving it negative emissions.

Achieving this is not only advantageous to combating climate change, it’s essential. A new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explores 116 scenarios in which global warming is kept to 1.5 oC of pre-industrial levels (more ambitious than the Paris Agreements 2oC). Of these scenarios, 101 use negative emissions technologies (NETs) at a scale of between 100 to 1,000 gigatonnes* over the 21st century.

Given the scale of the ambition, the task of capturing enough carbon to be truly negative will need to rely on many sources. Here are some of the techniques, technologies, and innovations aiming to push the world towards negative emissions.

  1. Forests

Weyerhaeuser Nursery, Camden, Alabama

CDR doesn’t have to utilise complex tech and chemistry. The planet’s natural carbon cycle already removes and stores huge amounts of carbon from the atmosphere – primarily through trees. The world’s forests have absorbed as much as 30% of annual global human-generated CO2 emissions over the last few decades.

Regenerating depleted forests (reforestation), planting new forests (afforestation), and protecting and helping existing forests thrive through active management can all contribute to offsetting emissions.

The IPCC report estimates that reforestations and afforestation could potentially capture 0.5 and 3.6 billion tonnes of CO2 a year at a cost of USD$5 to $50 (£3.90 to £39) per metric tonne.

There are potential drawbacks of extensive afforestation. It could compete with food crops, as well as reducing the reflection of heat and light back into space that arid lands currently offer to prevent global warming.

  1. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage

Europe’s first BECCS pilot project at Drax Power Station

Biomass on its own is an important fuel source in lowering emissions from industries such as power generation. On one hand, it’s created by organic material, which during its lifetime absorbs carbon from the atmosphere (often enough to offset emissions from transportation and combustion). On another, it creates a sustainable market for forestry products, encouraging landowners to responsibly manage forests, which in turn can lead to growing forests and increased CO2 absorption.

But when combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS or CCUS) technology it becomes a negative carbon emissions process, known as BECCS. Drax is partnering with carbon capture company C-Capture in a £400,000 pilot to develop CCS technology, which will remove a tonne of carbon from its operations a day. Combined with the carbon removed by the forests supplying the biomass, it could turn Drax into the world’s first negative emissions power station.

Beyond just storing the captured carbon underground, however, it can be used to create a range of products, locking in and making use of the carbon for much longer.

The IPCC report estimates between 0.5 and 5 billion metric tonnes of carbon could be captured globally this way at a cost of $100 to $200 (£80-160) per metric tonne.


  1. Increased ‘blue carbon’

Mangrove roots

It’s not only forests of fast-growing pines or eucalyptus that remove CO2 from the atmosphere. In fact, coastal vegetation such as mangroves, salt marshes and sea grasses suck in and store carbon in soil at a greater rate than plants on land. The carbon stored in these waterside ecosystems is known as ‘blue carbon’.

Human encroachment and development on coastlines has depleted these environments. However, efforts are underway to regenerate and expand these hyper-absorbent ecosystems –turning them into carbon sinks that can remove more emissions from the atmosphere than conventional forests. Apple is currently throwing its financial weight behind a mangrove expansion project in Colombia to try and offset its global operations.

  1. Boosting ocean plants’ productivity

Beyond costal mangroves, the ocean is full of plants that use CO2 to photosynthesise – in fact, the oceans are thought to be one of the world’s largest carbon sinks. But there are some people who think we could enhance marine plants’ absorption abilities.

Eelgrass Bed

One such approach involves injecting iron nutrients into the ocean to prompt a bloom in microscopic plants called phytoplankton, which float in the upper part of the ocean absorbing the CO2 absorbed from the atmosphere. When the plants eventually die they then sink trapping the absorbed carbon on the seabed.

An additional positive effect would be an increase in dimethyl sulphide, which marine plants emit. This could alter the reflectivity of clouds that absorb water from the ocean and further act to cool the earth.

  1. Enhanced rock weathering

Plants absorbing CO2 through photosynthesis is the most-commonly known part of the carbon cycle, however, rocks also absorb CO2 as they weather and erode.

The CO2 usually reaches the rock in the form of rain, which absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere as it falls. It then reacts with the rocks, very slowly breaking them down, and forming a bicarbonate that is eventually washed into the ocean, locking the carbon on the seabed.

The problem is it takes a long time. One idea that seeks to use this natural process more effectively is to speed it up by pulverising rocks and spreading the resulting powder over a larger area to absorb more CO2 from rain and air.

Natural rock weathering currently absorbs around 0.3% of global fossil fuel emissions annually, but the IPCC estimates at scale it could capture 2 and 4 billion metric tons at a cost of between $50 and $200 (£39-160) per metric ton. This approach also requires extensive land use and has not been trialled at scale.

  1. Sequestering carbon in soil

Soil is another major carbon sink. Plants and grasses that die and rot store carbon in the soil for long periods. However, modern farming techniques, such as intensive ploughing and fertilisation, causes carbon to be released and oxidised to form CO2.

Adjustments in farming methods could change this and, at scale, make agriculture carbon neutral. Straightforward techniques such as minimising soil disturbance, crop rotation and grassland regeneration could sequester as much as 5 billion tonnes of carbon into the soil annually, according to the IPCC, at potential zero cost.

A challenge to this method is that once soil is saturated it can’t hold any more carbon. That material would also be easily released if methods are not maintained in the future.

  1. Increasing soil carbon with biochar

A way to super-charge how much carbon soil can store is to add a substance called biochar to the earth. A type of charcoal made by burning biomass, such as wood or farm waste, in the absence of oxygen, biochar can increase the amount of carbon locked into the soil for hundreds or thousands of years. It also helps soil retain water, and reduce methane and nitrogen emissions.

Biochar has only been trialled at a small scale but the IPCC estimates that between 0.5 and 2 billion metric tonnes could be captured annually through this means. However, it predicts a cost of between $30 and $120 (£23-94) per metric tonne. Additionally, producing biochar at scale would require large amounts of biomass that must be sustainably sourced.

  1. Direct air capture

CO2 is in the air all around us and so removing it from the atmosphere can effectively take place anywhere. Direct air capture (DAC or DACCS) proposes that the carbon capture and storage technology many power stations are now trialling can be carried out almost anywhere.

Swiss start-up Climeworks is one company attempting to make DAC viable. Its technology works by passing air through a surface that reacts with CO2 to form a compound, but releases the remaining air. The newly formed compound is then heated so the reactive chemical agent can be separated and reused. The CO2 is then stored underground with gas and water where it reacts with basalt and turns to stone in less than two years.

The main challenge for this technique is the cost – between $200 and $600 (£156-468) per metric tonne – and that it requires large amounts of energy, creating further demand for electricity.

One hundred million tonnes

Wood pellet storage domes at Drax Power Station, Selby, North Yorkshire

The primary challenge for negative emission technology as a whole is that so few have actually been implemented at a global scale. However, trials are in motion around in the world, including at Drax, to remove emissions and help limit the effects of climate change.

Even if the UK decarbonises heavily across all sectors of the economy by 2050, there’s still projected to be 130 MtCO2 (million tonnes of carbon dioxide) net emissions. But a Royal Academy/Royal Society report released earlier this year was optimistic. It concluded that the country can become net zero and do its part in mitigating man made climate change – with BECCS identified as the negative emissions technology best suited to take the leading role and at least cost.

Learn more about carbon capture, usage and storage in our series:

Appointment of new Chief Financial Officer

25 October 2018

Investors

RNS Number : 1079F
Drax Group PLC

Andy Skelton

Andy has been CFO at Fidessa Group plc, a UK listed global software and services business, since October 2015.  He was previously Deputy CFO at CSR plc, before its acquisition in 2015 by Qualcomm Incorporated. Prior to joining CSR Andy held senior finance positions at Ericsson and Marconi, including two years as CFO of Ericsson Nikola Tesla. He has a BA in Accounting and Finance from Heriot Watt University and qualified as a chartered accountant in 1994.

Den Jones will remain with the Company until June 2019 to support the acquisition and integration of Scottish Power’s portfolio of pumped storage, hydro and gas-fired generation from Iberdrola. The acquisition is conditional upon the approval by Drax’s shareholders and clearance by UK Competition and Markets Authority.

Commenting on the appointment Phil Cox, Chairman of Drax, said:

“The Directors are delighted to welcome Andy to the Board of Drax.  He brings a wealth of experience and skills, and will be a strong addition to the Drax team.  I also extend the directors’ thanks to Den Jones who has done an excellent job as Interim CFO.”

There are no further matters which are required to be disclosed under Rule 9.6.13R of the Listing Rules of the Financial Services Authority.

Enquiries:

Drax Investor Relations: Mark Strafford

+44 (0) 1757 612 491

Media:

Drax External Communications: Matt Willey

+44 (0) 1757 612285

Website: www.drax.com

Notes:

Mr Skelton’s remuneration will be in accordance with the Company’s remuneration policy and at an annual base salary of £355,000.  No payments in respect of compensation for benefits lost on resignation from his previous employment will be made.

On 3 August 2018, an offer from ION Capital UK for the entire share capital of Fidessa was declared unconditional in all respects.

END

Acquisition of flexible, low-carbon and renewable UK power generation from Iberdrola

16 October 2018

Investors
RNS Number : 1562E
Drax Group PLC
THIS ANNOUNCEMENT CONTAINS INSIDE INFORMATION

Highlights

  • A unique portfolio of pumped storage, hydro and gas-fired generation assets
  • Compelling strategic rationale
    • Growing system support opportunity for the UK energy system
    • Significant expansion of Drax’s flexible, low-carbon and renewable generation model
    • Diversified generation capacity – multi-site, multi-technology
    • Opportunities in trading and operations
  • Strong financial investment case
    • High quality earnings
    • Expected returns significantly ahead of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
    • Expected EBITDA(1) of £90-110 million in 2019
    • Debt facility agreed, net debt/EBITDA expected to be around 2x by the end of 2019
    • Supportive of credit rating and reduced risk profile for Drax
    • Strengthens ability to pay a growing and sustainable dividend

Will Gardiner, CEO, Drax Group

Commenting on today’s announcement Will Gardiner, Chief Executive Officer of Drax Group, said:

“I am excited by the opportunity to acquire this unique and complementary portfolio of flexible, low-carbon and renewable generation assets. It’s a critical time in the UK power sector. As the system transitions towards renewable technologies, the demand for flexible, secure energy sources is set to grow. We believe there is a compelling logic in our move to add further flexible sources of power to our offering, accelerating our strategic vision to deliver a lower-carbon, lower-cost energy future for the UK.

“This acquisition makes great financial and strategic sense, delivering material value to our shareholders through long-term earnings and attractive returns.

“We are combining our existing operational expertise with the specialist technical skills of our new colleagues and I am looking forward to what we can achieve together.”

A flexible, low-carbon and renewable portfolio

The Portfolio consists of Cruachan pumped storage hydro (440MW), run-of-river hydro locations at Galloway and Lanark (126MW), four CCGT(2) stations: Damhead Creek (805MW), Rye House (715MW), Shoreham (420MW) and Blackburn Mill (60MW), and a biomass-from-waste facility (Daldowie).

Attractive high quality earnings and returns

The Portfolio is expected, based on recent power and commodity prices, to generate EBITDA in a range of £90-110 million, from gross profits of £155 million to £175 million, of which around two thirds is expected to come from non-commodity market sources, including system support services, capacity payments, Daldowie and ROCs(3). Pumped storage and hydro activities represent a significant proportion of the earnings associated with the portfolio. Further information is set out in Appendix 2 of this Announcement.

Capital expenditure in 2019 is expected to be in the region of £30-35 million.

For the year ended 31 December 2017, the Portfolio generated EBITDA of £36 million(4). EBITDA in 2019 is expected to be higher due to incremental contracted capacity payments (c.£42 million), no availability restrictions (Cruachan’s access to the UK grid during 2017 was limited by network transformer works) (c.£8 million), a lower level of corporate cost charged to the portfolio (c.£9 million) and revenues from system support services and current power prices. Gross assets as at 31 December 2017 were £419 million(5).

The Acquisition represents an attractive opportunity to create significant value for shareholders and is expected to deliver returns significantly in excess of the Group’s WACC and to be highly accretive to underlying earnings in 2019.

The Acquisition strengthens the Group’s ability to pay a growing and sustainable dividend. Drax remains committed to its capital allocation policy and to its current £50 million share buy-back programme, with £32 million of shares purchased to date.

Financing the Acquisition

Drax has entered into a fully underwritten £725 million secured acquisition bridge facility agreement to finance the Acquisition. Assuming performance in line with current expectations, net debt to EBITDA is expected to fall to Drax’s long-term target of around 2x by the end of 2019.

Drax expects its credit rating agencies to view the Acquisition as contributing to a reduced risk profile for the Group and to reaffirm their ratings.

Conditions for completion

The Acquisition is expected to complete on 31 December 2018 and is conditional upon the approval of the Acquisition by Drax’s shareholders and clearance by UK Competition and Markets Authority (the “CMA”). A summary of the terms of the Acquisition agreement (the “Acquisition Agreement”) is set out in Appendix 1 to this announcement.

Drax trading and operational performance

Since publishing its half year results on 24 July 2018 Drax has commenced operation of a fourth biomass unit at Drax Power Station, which is performing in line with plan, and availability across biomass units has been good.

Biomass storage domes at Drax Power Station

Taking these factors into account, alongside a strong 2018 hedged position and assuming good operational availability for the remainder of the year, Drax’s EBITDA expectations for the full year remain unchanged, with net debt to EBITDA now expected to be around 1.5x for the full year, excluding the impact of the Acquisition.

Biomass generation is now fully contracted for 2019.

Contracted power sales at 30 September 2018

201820192020
Power sales (TWh) comprising:18.611.55.7
TWh including expected CfD sales18.615.611.2
– Fixed price power sales (TWh) 18.611.05.1
At an average achieved price (per MWh)at £46.8at £50.4at £48.3
– Gas hedges (TWh)-0.50.6
At an achieved price per therm-43.5p47.4p

Drax intends to hedge up to 1TWh of the commodity exposures in the Portfolio ahead of completion in line with the Group’s existing hedging strategy.

Other matters

In light of the Acquisition and the expected timing of the general meeting to approve it, Drax will postpone the planned Capital Markets Day on 13 November 2018.

Drax expects to announce its full year results for the year ending 31 December 2018 on 26 February 2019.

Enquiries:
Drax Investor Relations: Mark Strafford
+44 (0) 1757 612 491
+44 (0) 7730 763949

Media:
Drax External Communications:
Matt Willey
+44 (0) 7711 376087

Ali Lewis
+44 (0) 77126 70888

J.P. Morgan Cazenove (Financial Adviser and Joint Corporate Broker):
+44 (0) 207 742 6000
Robert Constant
Jeanette Smits van Oyen
Carsten Woehrn

Royal Bank of Canada (Joint Corporate Broker):
+44 (0) 20 7653 4000
James Agnew
Jonathan Hardy

Acquisition presentation meeting and webcast arrangements

Management will host a presentation for analysts and media at 9:00am (UK Time), Tuesday 16 October 2018, at FTI Consulting, 200 Aldersgate, Aldersgate Street, London EC1A 4HD.

Would anyone wishing to attend please confirm by e-mailing [email protected] or calling Christopher Laing at FTI Consulting on +44 (0) 20 3727 1355 / 07809 234 126.

The meeting can also be accessed remotely via a live webcast, as detailed below. After the meeting, the webcast will be made available and access details of this recording are also set out below.

A copy of the presentation will be made available from 9am (UK time) on Tuesday 16 October 2018 for download at: www.drax.com>>investors>>results-reports-agm>> #investor-relations-presentations or use the link below.

Event Title:Drax Group plc: Acquisition of flexible, low-carbon and renewable UK power generation from Iberdrola
Event Date:Tuesday 16 October 2018
Event Time9:00am (UK time)
Webcast Live Event Linkhttps://www.drax.com/investors/16-oct-2018-webcast
020 3059 5868 (UK)
+44 20 3059 5868 (from all other locations)
Start Date:Tuesday 16 October 2018
Delete Date:Monday 14 October 2019
Archive Link:https://www.drax.com/investors/16-oct-2018-webcast

For further information please contact Christopher Laing on +44 (0) 20 3727 1355 / 07809 234 126.

Website: www.drax.com

Acquisition of the Portfolio from Iberdrola

Drax Smart Generation Holdco Limited (“Drax Smart Generation”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Drax, has entered into the Acquisition Agreement with Scottish Power Generation Holdings Limited (the “Seller”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Iberdrola S.A., for the acquisition of ScottishPower Generation Limited (“SPGEN”), for £702 million in cash.

Strong asset base

The Portfolio principally consists of 2.6GW of assets which are highly complementary to Drax’s existing generation portfolio and play an important role in the UK energy system. The assets include:

Cruachan Pumped Storage Hydro

440MW of large-scale storage and flexible low-carbon generation situated in Argyll and Bute, Scotland.

Cruachan provides a wide range of system support services to the UK energy market, in addition to providing merchant power generation. Cruachan has £35 million of contracted capacity payments for the period 2019 to 2022.

Cruachan, which provides over 35% of the UK’s pumped storage by volume, can provide long-duration storage with the ability to achieve full load in 30 seconds, which it can maintain for over 16 hours, making it a strategically important asset remunerated by a broad range of non-commodity based revenues.

 

Galloway and Lanark Run-of-River Hydro

126MW of stable and reliable renewable generation situated in South-west Scotland.

Both locations benefit from index-linked ROC revenues extending to 2027 and Galloway, in addition to renewable power generation, operates a reservoir and dam system providing storage capabilities and opportunities for peaking generation and system support services. It also has £4 million of contracted capacity payments for the period 2019 to 2022.

 

 

 

Combined Cycle Gas Generation (CCGT)

1,940MW of capacity at Damhead Creek (805MW), Rye House (715MW) and Shoreham (420MW) all strategically located in South-east England.

These assets provide baseload and/or peak power generation in addition to other system support services and benefit from attractive grid access income associated with their location. The three plants have contracted capacity payments of £127 million for the period 2019 to 2022.

Damhead Creek also benefits from an attractive option for the development of a second CCGT asset, Damhead Creek II, which provides additional gas generation optionality alongside Drax’s existing coal-to-gas repowering and OCGT(6) projects. All options could be developed subject to an appropriate level of support. Damhead Creek II is eligible for the 2019 capacity market auction along with two of Drax’s existing OCGT projects.

Other smaller sites

The portfolio also includes a small CCGT in Blackburn (60MW) and a 50K tonne biomass-from-waste facility in Daldowie, which benefits from a firm offtake contract agreement with Scottish Water until 2026.

Benefits of the Acquisition

A leading provider of flexible, low-carbon and renewable generation in the UK

The UK has a target to reduce carbon emissions by 80% by 2050. The transition to a low-carbon economy requires decarbonisation of heating, transport and generation. This will in turn require additional low-carbon sources of generation to be developed in the UK. As much as 85%(7) of future generation could come from renewables – predominantly wind and solar. This will lead, at times, to high levels of power price volatility and increasing demand for system support services. Managing an energy system with these characteristics will only be possible if it is supported by the right mix of flexible assets to manage volatility, balance the system and provide crucial non-generation services which a stable energy system requires.

The Acquisition is closely aligned with this structural need and the operation of Drax’s existing biomass and gas options which provide the flexibility required to enable higher levels of intermittent renewable generation.

The Acquisition is in line with these system needs and when combined with Drax’s existing flexible, biomass generation and gas options offers the Group increased exposure to the growing need for system support and power price volatility.

Increased earnings potential aligned with generation strategy and UK energy needs

The Acquisition is closely aligned with this structural need and the operation of Drax’s existing biomass and gas options which provide the flexibility required to enable higher levels of intermittent renewable generation.

The Acquisition is in line with these system needs and when combined with Drax’s existing flexible, biomass generation and gas options offers the Group increased exposure to the growing need for system support and power price volatility.

High quality earnings

Two thirds of the gross profits of the Portfolio is expected to come from non-commodity market sources, including system support services, capacity payments, Daldowie and ROCs, in addition to power generation activities. Due to the expected growing demand for these assets and the contract-based nature of many of these services Drax expects to improve long-term earnings visibility through structured non-commodity earnings streams, whilst retaining significant opportunity to benefit from power price volatility.

When combined with renewable earnings and system support from existing biomass generation, the Acquisition is expected to lead to an increase in the quality of earnings.

Diversified generation and portfolio benefits

Wood pellet storage domes at Drax Power Station, Selby, North Yorkshire

The Acquisition accelerates Drax’s development from a single-site generation business into a multi-site, multi-technology operator.

With the acquisition of this portfolio, a fall in gas prices could be mitigated by an increase in gas-fired generation reflecting the relative dispatch economics of the different technologies.

Drax expects to benefit from the management of generation across a broader asset base, leveraging the Group’s expertise in the operation, trading and optimisation of large rotating mass generation.

Drax believes that the team operating the Portfolio has a strong engineering culture which is closely aligned with the Drax model and will enhance the Group’s strong capabilities across engineering disciplines.

Around 260 operational roles will transfer to Drax as part of the Acquisition, complementing and reinforcing Drax’s existing engineering and operational capabilities.

Financing and capital structure

Drax has entered into a fully underwritten £725 million secured acquisition bridge facility to finance the Acquisition, with a term of 12 months from the first date of utilisation of the facility (with a seven-month extension option) and interest payable at a rate of LIBOR plus the applicable margin (the “Acquisition Facility Agreement”). The facility is competitively priced and below Drax’s current cost of debt.

Drax will consider its options for its long-term financing strategy in 2019.

Assuming performance in line with current expectations, net debt to EBITDA is expected to return to Drax’s long-term target of around 2x by the end of 2019.

Drax expects credit rating agencies to view the Acquisition as supportive of the rating and contributing to a reduced risk profile for the Group.

Process and integration plan

Drax is progressing a detailed integration plan to combine the Acquisition as part of the existing Power Generation business.

The transaction is subject to shareholder approval. A combined Shareholder Circular and notice of General Meeting will be posted as soon as practicable.

The transaction is expected to complete on 31 December 2018.

Notes:

(1)    EBITDA is defined as earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and material one-off items that do not reflect the underlying trading performance of the business. 2019 EBITDA is stated before any allocation of Group overheads.
(2)    Combined Cycle Gas Turbine.
(3)    Renewable Obligation Certificates.
(4)    2017 EBITDA is unaudited and based on the audited financial statements of Scottish Power Generation Limited and SMW Limited, adjusted to exclude results of assets that do not form part of the Portfolio and restated in accordance with Drax accounting policies.
(5)    On an unaudited historic cost basis, inclusive of an historic write down and other changes arising from the application of Drax’s accounting policies, and incorporating intercompany debtors which will be replaced by Drax going forward.
(6)    Open Cycle Gas Turbines.
(7)    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In a 1.5c pathway renewables are projected to be 70-85% of global electricity in 2050.

IMPORTANT NOTICE

The contents of this announcement have been prepared by and are the sole responsibility of Drax Group plc (the “Company”).

J.P. Morgan Limited (which conducts its UK investment banking business as J.P. Morgan Cazenove) (“J.P. Morgan Cazenove”) and RBC Europe Limited (“RBC”), which are both authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority (the “PRA”) and regulated in the United Kingdom by the FCA and the PRA, are each acting exclusively for the Company and for no one else in connection with the Acquisition, the content of this announcement and other matters described in this announcement and will not regard any other person as their respective clients in relation to the Acquisition, the content of this announcement and other matters described in this announcement and will not be responsible to anyone other than the Company for providing the protections afforded to their respective clients nor for providing advice to any other person in relation to the Acquisition, the content of this announcement or any other matters referred to in this announcement.

J.P. Morgan Cazenove, RBC and their respective affiliates do not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever and make no representations or warranties, express or implied, in relation to the contents of this announcement, including its accuracy, fairness, sufficient, completeness or verification or for any other statement made or purported to be made by it, or on its behalf, in connection with the Acquisition and nothing in this announcement is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation in this respect, whether as to the past or the future. Each of J.P. Morgan Cazenove, RBC and their respective affiliates accordingly disclaims to the fullest extent permitted by law all and any responsibility and liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise which it might otherwise be found to have in respect of this announcement or any such statement.

Certain statements in this announcement may be forward-looking. Any forward-looking statements reflect the Company’s current view with respect to future events and are subject to risks relating to future events and other risks, uncertainties and assumptions relating to the Company and its group’s, the Portfolio’s and/or, following completion, the enlarged group’s business, results of operations, financial position, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies, integration of the business organisations and achievement of anticipated combination benefits in a timely manner. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in these forward looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance or guarantee that these expectations will prove to have been correct. Because these statements involve risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward looking statements.

Each of the Company, J.P. Morgan Cazenove, RBC and their respective affiliates expressly disclaim any obligation or undertaking to supplement, amend, update, review or revise any of the forward looking statements made herein, except as required by law.

You are advised to read this announcement and any circular (if and when published) in their entirety for a further discussion of the factors that could affect the Company and its group, the Portfolio and/or, following completion, the enlarged group’s future performance. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the events described in the forward-looking statements in this announcement may not occur.

Neither the content of the Company’s website (or any other website) nor any website accessible by hyperlinks on the Company’s website (or any other website) is incorporated in, or forms part of, this announcement.

Appendix 1

Principal Terms of the Acquisition

The following is a summary of the principal terms of the Acquisition Agreement.

  1. Acquisition Agreement

Parties and consideration

The Acquisition Agreement was entered into on 16 October 2018 between Drax Smart Generation and the Seller. Pursuant to the Acquisition Agreement, the Seller has agreed to sell, and Drax Smart Generation has agreed to acquire, the whole of the issued share capital of SPGEN for £702 million, subject to certain customary adjustments in respect of cash, debt and working capital.

Drax Group Holdings Limited has agreed to guarantee the payment obligations of Drax Smart Generation under the Acquisition Agreement. Scottish Power UK plc has agreed to guarantee the payment obligations of the Seller under the Acquisition Agreement.

Conditions to Completion

The Acquisition is conditional on:

  • the approval of the Acquisition by Drax shareholders, which is required as the Acquisition constitutes a Class 1 transaction under the Listing Rules (the “Shareholder Approval Condition”); and
  • the CMA having indicated that it has no further questions at that stage in response to pre-Completion engagement by Drax or the CMA having provided a decision that the Acquisition will not be subject to a reference under the UK merger control regime.

Completion is currently expected to occur on 31 December 2018 assuming that the conditions are satisfied by that date.

Termination for material reduction in available generation capacity

Drax Smart Generation has the right to terminate the Acquisition Agreement upon the occurrence of a material reduction in available generation capacity at any of the Cruachan, Galloway and Lanark or Damhead Creek facilities which subsists, or is reasonably likely to subsist, for a continuous period of three months. The right of Drax Smart Generation to terminate in these circumstances is subject to the Seller’s right to defer Completion if the relevant material reduction in available generation capacity can be resolved by end of the month following the anticipated date of Completion.

Break fee

A break fee of £14.6 million (equal to 1% of Drax’s market capitalisation at close of business on the day before announcement) is payable if the Shareholder Approval Condition is not met, save where this is as a result of a material reduction in available generation capacity as described above.

Pre-completion covenants

The Seller has given certain customary covenants in relation to the period between signing of the Acquisition Agreement and completion, including to carry on the SPGEN business in the ordinary and usual course.  The Seller will carry out certain reorganisation steps prior to completion.

Pension liabilities

Drax Smart Generation has agreed to assume the accrued defined benefit pension liabilities associated with the employees of the SPGEN group as at the date of signing the Acquisition Agreement. Following Completion, the SPGEN group will continue to participate in the Seller’s group defined benefit pension scheme, known as the ScottishPower Pension Scheme (“SPPS”) for an interim period of 12 months unless agreed otherwise (the “Interim Period”) while a new pension scheme is set up by the SPGEN group for the benefit of its employees (the “New Scheme”).

At the end of the Interim Period, the SPPS trustees will be requested to transfer from the SPPS to the New Scheme an amount of liabilities (and corresponding share of assets) agreed between the Seller and Drax Smart Generation (or failing agreement, an amount determined by an independent actuary) in respect of the past service liabilities relating to the SPGEN group employees.  If the amount of assets transferred to the New Scheme does not match the amount agreed (or independently determined), there will be a true-up between the Seller and Drax Smart Generation.

If the SPPS trustees do not make any transfer to the New Scheme within the period of 18 months following the Interim Period (unless this was caused by a breach of the Acquisition Agreement by the Seller), Drax Smart Generation has agreed to pay £16 million (plus base rate interest) to the Seller as compensation for the SPPS liabilities not taken on by the New Scheme.

Seller’s warranties, indemnities and tax covenant

The Seller has provided customary warranties in the Acquisition Agreement.  The Seller also has provided Drax Smart Generation with indemnities in respect of certain specific matters, including for any losses associated with the reorganisation referred to above.  A customary tax covenant is also provided in the Acquisition Agreement.

  1. Transitional Services Agreement

The Seller and SPGEN will enter into a transitional services agreement effective at Completion. The specific nature, terms and charges relating to the services to be provided will be agreed between the Seller and SPGEN prior to Completion. The Seller will also provide assistance in relation to the extraction and separation of the SPGEN group from the systems of the Seller and integration of the SPGEN group onto the systems of the Drax Group.

Appendix 2

Profit Forecast

Profit forecast for the Portfolio for the year ending 31 December 2019 including bases and assumptions.

The Portfolio is expected, based on recent power and commodity prices, to generate EBITDA in a range of £90-110 million (“Profit Forecast”), and gross profits of £155 million to £175 million, of which around two thirds is expected to come from non-commodity market sources, including system support services, capacity payments, Daldowie and ROCs. Pumped storage and hydro activities represent a significant proportion of the earnings associated with the portfolio.

For the purpose of the Profit Forecast, EBITDA is stated before any allocation of Group overheads (as these will be an allocation of the existing Drax Group cost base which is not expected to increase as a result of the acquisition of the Portfolio).

Basis of preparation

The Profit Forecast has been compiled on the basis of the assumptions stated below, and on the basis of the accounting policies of the Drax Group adopted in its financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2017. Subsequent accounting policy changes include the application of IFRS15 and IFRS9 which are not initially expected to change the EBITDA results of the Portfolio. It also does not reflect the impact of IFRS16 which would apply in respect of the 2019 Annual Report and Accounts.

The Profit Forecast has been prepared with reference to:

  • Unaudited 2017 financial statements based on the audited financial statements of Scottish Power Generation Limited and SMW Limited, adjusted to exclude results of assets that do not form part of the Portfolio and restated in accordance with Drax accounting policies
  • The audited financial statements of the entities forming the Portfolio for the year ending 31 December 2017
  • The unaudited management accounts of the Portfolio for the nine months ending 30 September 2018
  • And on the basis of the projected financial performance of the Portfolio for the year ending 31 December 2019

The Profit Forecast is a best estimate of the EBITDA that the Portfolio will generate for a future period of a year in respect of assets and operations that are not yet under the control of Drax. Accordingly the degree of uncertainty relating to the assumptions underpinning the Profit Forecast is inherently greater than would be the case for a profit forecast based on assets and operation under the control of Drax and/or which covered a shorter future period. The Profit Forecast has been prepared as at today and will be updated in the shareholder circular.

The forecast cost base reflects the expectations of the Drax Directors of the operating regime of the Portfolio under Drax’s ownership and the central support it will require.

Principal assumptions

The Profit Forecast has been prepared on the basis of the following principal assumptions:

Assumptions within management’s control

  1. There is no change in the composition of the Portfolio.
  2. There is no material change to the manner in which these assets are operated.
  3. There are no material changes to the existing running costs / operating costs of the Portfolio.
  4. There will be no material restrictions on running each of the assets in the Portfolio other than those that would be envisaged in the ordinary course.
  5. No material issues with the migration of services including trading and information technology from Scottish Power to Drax.
  6. No hedges are transferred as part of the Transaction.
  7. Transaction costs and one-off costs associated with the Integration are not included.

Assumptions outside of management’s control

  1. The acquisition of the Portfolio is completed on 31 December 2018.
  2. There is no material change to existing prevailing UK macroeconomic and political conditions prior to 31 December 2019.
  3. There are no material changes in market conditions in electricity generating market and no change to the UK energy supply mix.
  4. There are no material changes in legislation or regulatory requirements (e.g. ROCs, capacity market, grid charges) impacting the operations or accounting policies of the Portfolio.
  5. There are no changes to recent market prices for clean spark spread, power, carbon and other commodities.
  6. There is no material change from the historical 10-year average rainfall.
  7. There are no material adverse events that have a significant impact on the financial performance of any of the acquired assets, including any more unplanned outages than would be expected in the ordinary course.
  8. Prior to completion, the business will be operated in the ordinary course.
  9. There are no material issues with the transitional services provided by Scottish Power to Drax pursuant to the TSA, including the migration of such services to Drax.
  10. There is no material change in the management or control of the Drax group.

 

END

Coal comeback pushes up UK’s carbon emissions

Iain Staffell, Imperial College London

17 September 2018

Opinion
UK coal production

10-year high gas prices1 have prompted a resurgence in coal-fired power across Britain – and with it a 15% increase in carbon emissions from electricity generation.

If coal-fired electricity remains cheaper than gas-fired (as analysts predict), we could see the first year-on-year rise in carbon emissions from Britain’s power sector in six years. This highlights the importance of retaining a strong carbon price if we are to ensure the successful decarbonisation of the power system is not reversed.

After dropping to a historic low of just 0.2 GW during June and July, Britain’s coal power generation doubled in August, and has shot up to 2 GW during the first week of September.  The last time coal output was this high was during the Beast from the East, when temperatures plummeted in March.

With these coal power stations running instead of more efficient gas plants, Britain is producing an extra 1,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) every hour.2  Carbon emissions from electricity generation are up 15% as a result.  These coal plants are not running solely because they are needed to meet peak demand, but because gas prices have risen sharply and carbon prices have not kept up, making coal power stations more economic to run than gas-fired ones.

It became cheaper to generate power from coal than from gas (see thick lines, chart below) in late August.  Even though carbon prices now double the cost of generating electricity from coal,3 coal plants are consistently “in the money” at the moment, meaning they can generate power profitably all day and night.

Estimated cost of generating electricity from coal and gas in Quarter 3 (thick lines), and the output from coal power stations in Britain (thin line)

Estimated cost of generating electricity from coal and gas in Quarter 3 (thick lines), and the output from coal power stations in Britain (thin line)

The cost of emitting CO2 has increased sharply, up 45% so far this year due to the ongoing rally in European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) prices.  Rising carbon prices should make gas more economical to burn as it emits less than half the CO2 of coal.

However, wholesale gas prices have also risen 40% since the start of the year, as supplies and storage are squeezed in the run up to winter.  Gas prices are at a ten-year high, currently 14% above their previous quarterly-average peak back in 2013 (see chart below).  These rising costs are feeding through into wholesale power prices, which have risen by a third over the past year to hit £60/MWh.

The cost of generating electricity and carbon cost

The estimated cost of generating electricity from fossil fuels over the last 20 years, along with the cost of emitting CO2.

Britain’s carbon price strengthened dramatically through 2014–15 due to the government implementing a Carbon Price Support scheme.  This caused gas to become competitive against coal for power generation, leading to carbon emissions from the power sector halving.  Unless Britain’s carbon price can once again make up the gap between coal and gas prices, we risk rolling back some of the world-leading gains made on cleaning up our electricity system.

The Committee on Climate Change has made it clear that power is the only sector that is pulling its weight when it comes to decarbonising the UK.  Clean electricity could power low-carbon vehicles and heating, but this opportunity will be wasted if the electricity comes from high-carbon coal.

UK electricity system

So what can be done?  The sharp rise in gas prices hints at a lack of flexibility in the energy system.  Britain came uncomfortably close to gas shortages in March, in part due to the closure of the country’s largest gas storage site.  With nearly half of the electricity generated in Britain coming from gas, plus five-sixths of household heat, diversifying into other – cleaner – energy sources would help insulate consumers and businesses from price spikes.

No one country has the power to determine international fuel prices.  Several factors have come together to push up gas prices, including a lack of transmission capacity, depleted stores of gas after the long hot summer and a lack of wind power increased output from gas-fired stations. Suppliers which don’t wish to be caught short after the Beast from the East, are also stocking up on gas.

Any knee-jerk reaction to try and lower the cost of electricity (for example, slashing the cost of carbon emissions) may only have a short-term impact, and could easily lead to longer-term damage (such as the resurgence of coal) which would require further interventions in the future.

Britain does have control over its carbon price. Its power stations and industry currently pay the Emissions Trading System price (determined on the Europe-wide market) which has fluctuated wildly over the past week between €25 (£22) and €19 (£17) per tonne, plus £18 per tonne in Carbon Price Support which goes to the Treasury.  This needs to be maintained or strengthened further to save the power system from backsliding, and to show strong climate leadership on the international stage.

Explore this data live on the Electric Insights website

View Drax Power CEO Andy Koss’ comment

Commissioned by Drax, Electric Insights is produced independently by a team of academics from Imperial College London, led by Dr Iain Staffell and facilitated by the College’s consultancy company – Imperial Consultants.

[1] The three-month average cost of generating electricity from gas exceeded £60/MWh for the first time since 2009.  Short-term price spikes have been higher than this, such as the first week of March during the Beast from the East.↩

[2] Extra generation from coal reduces the output from gas plants, which are their main competitors, as nuclear, wind and solar already run as much as possible.  Calculation based on 1934 MW of coal generation (the average during the first week of September) emitting 937 gCO2 per kWh (1812 tonnes per hour) instead of gas generation which would have emitted 394 gCO2 per kWh (762 tonnes per hour).↩

[3] The coal that must be burnt to produce 1 MWh of electricity now costs around £31, and the CO2 pollution costs an extra £31 on top.  For comparison, producing 1 MWh of electricity from gas costs £50 for the fuel and £15 for the CO2.↩

How to switch a power station off coal

22 August 2018

Sustainable bioenergy
Turbine hall at Drax Power Station

In 2003, the UK’s biggest coal power station took its first steps away from the fossil fuel which defined electricity generation for more than a century. It was in that year that Drax Power Station began co-firing biomass as a renewable alternative to coal.

It symbolised the beginnings of the power station’s ambitious transformation from fossil-fuel stalwart to the country’s largest single-site renewable electricity generator. This plan presented a massive engineering challenge for Drax, with significant amounts of new knowledge quickly needed.

Fifteen years later, three of its generating units now run entirely on compressed wood pellets, a form of biomass, while coal has been relegated to stepping in only to cover spikes in demand and improve system stability.

Now Drax has converted a fourth unit from coal to biomass. This development represents the passing of a two thirds marker for the power station’s coal-free ambitions and adds 600-plus megawatts (MW) of renewable electricity to Great Britain’s national transmission system.

Building on the past

Drax first converted a coal unit to biomass in 2013, with two more following in 2014 and 2016. This put Drax in an interesting position going into a new conversion: on one hand, it is one of the most experienced generators in the world when it comes to dealing with and upgrading to biomass. On the other, it’s still relatively new to the low carbon fuel compared with its dealings with coal.

Adam Nicholson

“We’ve decades of understanding of how to use coal, but we’ve only been operating with biomass since we started the full conversion trials in 2011,” says Adam Nicholson, Section Head for Process Performance at Drax Power. “We’ve got few running hours under our belts with the new fuel versus the hundreds of man years of coal knowledge and operation all around the country.”

When converting a generating unit, the steam turbine and generator itself remain the same. The difference is all in the material being delivered, stored, crushed and blown into the boiler and burned to heat up water and create steam. And because biomass can be a volatile substance – much more so than coal – this process must be a careful one.

Drax could build on the learnings and equipment it had already developed for biomass such as specially built trains and pulverising mills, but storage proved a bigger issue. The giant biomass domes at Drax that make up the EcoStore are advanced technological structures carefully attuned to storing biomass, but for Unit 4, they were off limits.

Instead Drax engineers had to come up with another solution.

The journey of a pellet through the power station

Normally wood pellets are brought into Drax by train, unloaded and stored in the biomass domes before travelling through the power station to the mills and then boilers. Unit 4, however, sits in the second half of the station – built 12 years after the first. This slight change in location presented a problem.

“There’s no link from the eco store to Unit 4 at all,” explains Nicholson. “You can’t use the storage domes and that whole infrastructure to get anything to Unit 4.”

Drax engineers set about designing a new conveyor system that could connect the domes to the mills and boiler that powers Unit 4. After weeks of design, the team had a theoretical plan to connect the two locations with one problem: it was entirely uneconomical.

Rail unloading building 1 and storage silos

“If we were building a new plant it would be relatively easy, because you could plan properly and wouldn’t have existing equipment in the way,” says Nicholson.

“We had to plan around it and make use of the pre-existing plant.”

Within that pre-existing plant though were vital pieces of equipment, some of which had laid dormant since Drax stopped fuelling its boilers with a mixture of coal and biomass and opted instead for full unit conversions.

Drax began cofiring across all six units in 2003, using two different materials – a mix of around 5% biomass and 95% coal. A direct injection facility was added in 2005. It involved blowing crushed wood pellets into coal fuel lines from two of the power station’s 60 mills.

Then, the amount of renewable power Drax was able to generate roughly doubled in the summer of 2010 when a 400 MW co-firing facility became operational.

Back to the present day, it’s fortunate for the Unit 4 conversion that the co-firing facility includes its own rail unloading building (RUB 1) and storage silos. They are located much closer to the unit than the bigger RUB 2 and the massive biomass domes.

This solved the problem of storage but moving the required volumes of biomass through the plant without significant transport construction still posed a challenge.

Rail unloading building 1 and storage silos for Unit 4 [left], EcoStore biomass domes for units 1-3 [right]

To tackle this the team modified a pneumatic transport system, previously tested during co-firing, to have the capability to blow entire pellets from the storage facilities around the power station at speeds of more than 20 metres per second. The success of this system proved key – it was the final piece necessary to make the conversion of Unit 4 economical.

The post-coal future

Andy Koss

For now, Drax’s fifth and sixth generating unit remain coal-powered, but are called upon less frequently. With Great Britain set to go completely coal-free by 2025, there are plans to convert these too, but as part of a system of combined cycle gas turbines and giant batteries rather than biomass powered units.

It’s an opportunity for Drax to again leverage its pre-existing plant and provide the grid with a fast acting-source of lower-carbon electricity. As with converting to biomass, it will pose a complex new engineering challenge – one that will prepare Drax to meet the future needs of grid as it continues to change and demand greater flexibility from generators.

“The speed at which the Unit 4 project has been delivered is testament to the engineering expertise, skill and ingenuity we continue to see at Drax. We’re nimble and innovative enough to meet future challenges,” says Andy Koss, Chief Executive, Drax Power.

“We may look very different in 10 or 20 years’ time, but the ethos of that innovation and agility is something that will persist.”

Repowering the remaining coal plant with gas and up to 200 MW of batteries will sit alongside research into areas such as carbon capture, use and storage (CCuS) that is all geared towards expanding Drax Power beyond a single site generator into a portfolio of flexible power production facilities.

Unit 4’s conversion is more than just a step beyond halfway for the power station’s decarbonisation, but a significant step towards becoming entirely coal-free.

Find out more about Unit 4.

Great Britain is almost ready for coal-free summers

14 August 2018

Power generation

Every summer Great Britain uses less and less coal. This June the fossil fuel’s share of the electricity mix dipped below 1% for the first time ever – for 12 days it dropped all the way to zero.

Spurred on by the beginnings of an uncharacteristically dry, hot summer and a jump in solar generation, the possibility of the country going entirely coal-free for a full summer now looks more achievable than ever in modern times.

This is one of the key findings from Electric Insights, a quarterly report commissioned by Drax and written, independently, by researchers from Imperial College London. It found that across Q2 2018, there were as many coal-free hours as in the whole of 2016 and 2017 combined.

And while the report’s findings are hugely positive, they also hint at where development is still needed. What else does the performance of this quarter tell us about what we can expect in the power sector – in Great Britain and around the world?

Great Britain is slashing coal generation, the rest of the world needs to catch up

Great Britain has reduced its coal-fired power generation by four-fifths over the last five years. Last quarter the country’s coal fleet ran at just 3% of its 12.9 gigawatt (GW) capacity. Coal capacity is now lower than the capacity of solar PV panels (13.1 GW) installed nationwide, with the most recent decline resulting from Drax’s conversion of a fourth unit from coal to biomass.

When coal generation was running, it primarily provided system balancing services overnight in May and June rather than baseload electricity. However, this positive trend is not seen around the world.

The share of coal in national power systems during 2017

Globally, coal still provides 38% of the world’s electricity – the same amount it did 30 years ago. This comes despite efforts in Europe and North America to move away from coal, and growing investment into renewable generation and technologies.

Overall, Europe’s coal generation dropped from 39% to 22% over the last 30 years, despite some countries – such as Poland and Serbia – still drawing significant generation from the fossil fuel. The US has also reduced its coal generation from 57% to 31% over the past 30 years, as natural gas proves more economical, even in an era of pro-coal policies.

However, in the Middle East and Africa (which draw significant generation from their oil and gas reserves) and South America (where coal accounts for less than 3% of generation), total coal generation is growing. In fact, globally, only seven countries use less coal today than 30 years ago: Germany, Poland, Spain, Ukraine, the US, Great Britain and Canada.

Electric Insights attributes part of this global growth to the continued increase in demand for electricity, particularly in Asia. China, South Korea and Indonesia collectively burn 10 times more coal than they did 30 years ago. India’s coal habit has also increased over the past decade to account for 76% of its electricity generation, while Japan’s usage has grown from 15% to 34% in the same period.

As well as the stresses created by growing demand, this highlights a global disparity in the approach to decarbonising electricity systems, and a need for longer-term, environmentally and socially-conscious market-based initiatives that encourage meaningful movement to lower-carbon electricity sources, such as the UK and Canada’s Powering Past Coal Alliance.

Read the full articles here:

(Lack of) progress in global electricity generation

Britain edges closer to zero coal

Solar farm in South Wales

Decarbonisation is growing, but it’s going to get harder

Great Britain’s decline in coal use has rapidly accelerated its decarbonisation efforts. Annual coal power station emissions have shrunk over the past five years from 129 to 19 million tonnes of CO2 and helped reduce the average carbon intensity of electricity generation to a record low of 195 g/kWh last quarter.

However, this rapid pace of decarbonisation is unlikely to be sustained as growth in renewables faces a plateau, the country’s current nuclear capacity reaches retirement and the target of moving beyond coal by 2025 is completed.

Renewable sources now account for a steady 25% of annual electricity generation. These sources largely came onto the system through policies such as the government’s Renewables Obligation, which is now closed to entrants; Contracts for Differences, the future of which is uncertain for mature technologies like onshore wind and solar; and Feed-in Tariffs for roof-top solar installations which will close in April 2019. The end of these initiative paints a hazy picture of how future renewable capacity will be brought into the system.

Nuclear capacity also looks unlikely to expand at the rate needed to plug gaps in demand, with half of the country’s fleet expected to close for safety reasons by 2025. The Hinkley Point C nuclear power station, meanwhile, is only expected to come online at the end of that year.

Read the full article here:

Has Britain’s power sector decarbonisation stalled?

Ramsgate, Kent during summer 2018 heatwave

Weather will continue to play a major part in renewable generation

If the first quarter of 2018 was defined by low temperatures and heavy snowfall, the second quarter saw the impact of the opposite in weather conditions. From 23 June a heatwave set in around the country that saw temperatures increase by 3.3oC in a week, driving demand to jump 860 MW – the equivalent of an extra 2.5 million households, or an area the size of Scotland.

The increase in demand isn’t as drastic as when cold fronts hit, but if summers continue to get hotter this could change. Today, winter-time demand increases by 750 MW for every degree it drops below 14oC as electric heaters are plugged in to aid largely gas-based central-heating systems. When the mercury rises, however, demand increases by 350 MW for every degree rise over 20oC as businesses turn on air conditioning and the country’s refrigerators work harder.

These heatwave spikes are, at the moment, more easily dealt with than winter storms. While the Beast from the East saw demand reaching a peak of 53.3 GW, June’s topped out at 32.5 GW. The clear skies and long days of June also meant solar PV generation soared, making up for the ‘wind drought’ caused by the high-pressure weather. Wind output floated between 0.3 GW and 4.3 GW in June, far below its quarter peak to 13 GW. However, solar made up for this by peaking past 8 GW for 13 days in June and setting a new record of 9.39 GW at lunchtime on 27 June.

Read the full articles:

How the heat wave affects electricity demand

The summer wind drought and smashing solar

Explore the data in detail by visiting ElectricInsights.co.uk. Read the full report.

Commissioned by Drax, Electric Insights is produced, independently, by a team of academics from Imperial College London, led by Dr Iain Staffell and facilitated by the College’s consultancy company – Imperial Consultants.