Tag: energy policy

‘3D’ to drive an energy revolution

Jonathan Kini, CEO Customers

1 February 2019

Opinion

Think of the phrase ‘3D’ and may people instantly think of video games, television or cinema, along with the special glasses you needed to watch it.

But another form of 3D is, I believe, going to be at the heart of the energy revolution which is rapidly gathering place.

The three Ds in this case are Data, Diversification and Decarbonisation. Together, they will transform the way businesses buy, use and sell their energy, help companies take control of their energy use and save money and also play a key part in our journey towards a zero carbon, lower cost energy future.

We’re already seeing some real innovations in the energy sector. Our trial of a storage battery with a customer of Opus Energy is an example, offering a farming business in Northampton the chance to sell stored energy generated by solar panels back to the grid at times of peak demand – a potential new revenue stream.

But other innovations and advances will maintain the pace of change and data will be at the core of this now the new generation of smart meters are being installed in businesses, revolutionising customer relationships with their energy suppliers.

The data from the new meters will finally give customers insight into where and when they use energy. Suppliers will have to work much more closely with customers to help them access new opportunities for cost savings, access to new markets and even new revenue streams.

An example would be a restaurant. With the data smart meters will provide, the restaurant’s supplier will be able to tell the owners how their energy use compares to the local competition and where improvements can be made.

The detail could go as far as identifying whether the restaurant’s equipment is older and less efficient, whether rivals have installed newer kit or whether other businesses are switching off their equipment earlier or using it at different, cheaper times.

Using energy during the peak weekday morning and early evening hours is often the most expensive time to do so. Data will give businesses the insight into how they can use energy more efficiently and when they use it, offering them the chance to avoid buying at peak times whenever possible and driving efficiencies.

This is why Haven Power’s trading team is now working closely with GridBeyond. The partnership allows our customers to trade the power they produce as well as optimise their operations to help balance the grid at times of peak demand. The really smart thing is that in doing so, customers are reducing their energy costs and making their operations more sustainable.

Trading desks at Haven Power’s Ipswich HQ

The way demand changes and is managed by businesses and consumers on a diversified power system will also be key. The business energy sector is already diversifying as many customers are able to generate and store their own power but the next step is for more customers to be paid to reduce their usage at peak times.

Think of a busy time for the National Grid – half time in the FA Cup Final or after the results in Strictly Come Dancing. Previously, the grid would have to pay a power station to ramp up generation to meet demand but these days, customers are paid to reduce demand for 30 minutes or so – in effect becoming a huge virtual power station.

This has happened for some time of course with larger, industrial customers but now, smaller companies can benefit from this too, thanks to the data and insight they will have from their smart meters. This empowers customers and puts them, not the energy companies, in control of the key decisions about their energy.

A close, advisory relationship between energy suppliers and their customers will become ever more important to make sure business can choose to avoid the high demand periods, and maximises use during the lower, cheaper times. In fact, I can see a time when customers will end up paying more for insight and advice than they do for the power they buy – and they’ll save money overall in doing so.

And if we get all this right, it will help drive one of the most important of the three Ds – decarbonisation.

Sustainability is increasingly becoming a primary focus for businesses and demand for renewable energy is growing because it is now cost-effective. That will help us in our drive towards a zero carbon future as more and more renewable energy comes onstream, though the UK will continue to need power generated from more flexible assets as well.

So there are huge opportunities out there to transform our energy landscape but they have to be viewed positively. The smart metering programme can be viewed as a regulatory burden or it can be seen as an opportunity. We take the positive view.

Likewise, batteries were once the preserve of massive companies only but now, as technology develops, they are becoming available for smaller firms too. The more we can innovative on a larger scale, the more the technology will work its way into smaller markets too, adding momentum to the energy revolution.

The opportunities are huge. If we get it right, so too will be the benefits to one of the biggest priorities of all – the work to decarbonise the UK and create the lower carbon future we all want.

How to get more EVs on the roads

25 January 2019

Electrification

From school runs to goods deliveries, getting from A to B is crucial to life in modern Britain. However, a progress report by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) found that in 2017 transport was the largest greenhouse gas (GHG)-emitting sector in the UK, accounting for 28% of total emissions. Within domestic transport, cars, vans and HGVs are the three most significant sources of emissions, accounting for 87% of the sector’s emissions.

A zero carbon future relies on a major shift away from petrol and diesel engines to electric transport. A recent report, Energy Revolution: A Global Outlook, by academics from Imperial College London and E4tech, commissioned by Drax, examines the decarbonisation efforts of 25 major countries. The report found the UK ranked sixth in sales of new electric vehicles (EVs) in the 12 months to September 2018 and seventh for the number of charging points available.

The government’s Road to Zero strategy outlines the country’s target for as many as 70% of new car sales to be ultra-low emission by 2030, alongside up to 40% of new vans. It has, however, been criticised by the Committee on Climate Change as not being ambitious enough. A committee of MPs has suggested 2032 becomes the official target date for banning new petrol and diesel cars, rather than 2040 called for in the strategy.

Even as the range of EVs on the market grows, getting more low-emission vehicles on roads will require incentives and infrastructure improvements. Here’s how some of the countries leading the shift to electrified transport are driving adoption.

Expanding charging infrastructure

One of major barriers to EV adoption is a lack of public charging facilitates, coupled with reliability issues across a network that includes both old hardware and a plethora of apps and different connections. No one wants to set off on a long journey unsure of whether they’ll be able to find a recharging point before their battery goes flat.

According to the Energy Revolution report, there is one charger for every 5,000 people in the UK, compared to one for every 500 people in Norway, the leading country for charging points. The Scandinavian country’s government has invested heavily in its policy of placing two fast charging stations for every 50 km of main road, covering 100% of the cost of installation.

Government support has also been crucial in second and third ranked countries, The Netherlands and Sweden, respectively. The Dutch Living Lab Smart Charging is a collaboration between government and private organisations to use wind and solar to change vehicles. While Sweden has combined its ‘Klimatklivet’ investment scheme for both public and private charge points, with experiments, such as charging roads.

China, where half of the world’s 300,000 charge points are located, has issued a directive calling for the construction of 4.8 million electric charging points around the country by 2020. It’s also assisting private investments to make charging stations more financially viable.

The UK’s Road to Zero Strategy is to expand charging infrastructure through a £400 million joint investment fund with private investors.

Drax’s Energising Britain report found the UK is on track to meet its 2030 target of 28,000 installed chargers ahead of time. However, deployment still clusters around London, the South East and Scotland.

More direct government incentives or policies may be needed to balance this disparity and in the UK, the Scottish Government is leading the pack with a 2032 ban on new petrol and diesel cars plus a range of initiatives including public charging networks and the Switched on Towns and City Fund.

Charging points are necessary for electrified roads. However, it’s a chicken-and-egg situation –more chargers don’t mean more EVs. Getting more EVs on roads also requires financial incentive.

Money makes the wheels go around  

Putting infrastructure in place is one thing, but the reality is EVs are expensive, especially new ones and cold hard cash is an important driver of adoption.

Financial incentives have been a part of Norway’s policies since the 1980s, with the country’s high fuel prices, compared to the US for example, further helping to make EVs attractive. Current benefits for EV owners include: no import or purchase taxes, no VAT, no road tax, no road tolls, half price on ferries and free municipal parking. There are also non-financial incentives such as bus-lane usage.

Sweden, the second ranked country for new EV sales in 2018, is a similar case where high fuel prices are combined with a carrot-and-stick approach of subsidies for EVs and rising road taxes for fossil fuel-powered vehicles, including hybrids.

The UK has had a grant scheme in place since 2011, but last year removed hybrid vehicles from eligibility and dropped the maximum grant for new EV buyers from £4,500 to £3,500. EVs are also exempt from road taxes. In April 2019, Transport for London is implementing a Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) which exempts EVs from a daily charge.

Subsidies for both buyers and vehicle manufacturers have been a cornerstone of China’s policies, with support coming up to around $15,000 per vehicle. Chinese EV buyers can also skip the lottery system for new license plates the country has in place to reduce congestion.

Heavy subsidies have allowed the country to claim as much as 50% of the entire EV passenger market, however, it makes change expensive and the government is now preparing to find a more sustainable way of driving adoption.

Preparing for transport beyond subsidies

China isn’t afraid to strong-arm manufacturers into building more EVs. Companies with annual sales of more than 30,000 vehicles are required to meet a quota of at least 10% EVs or hybrids. However, the government has begun to scale back subsidies in the hope it will drive innovation in areas such as batteries, robotics and automation, which will in turn reduce the price for end consumers.

Norway, which owes so much of its decarbonisation leadership in low-carbon transport to subsidies, is also grappling with how to move away from this model. As EVs creep increasingly towards the norm, the taxes lost through EV’s exclusions become more economically noticeable. While the government says the subsidies will remain in place until at least 2020, different political parties are calling to make the market commercially viable.

There is also concern the schemes only pass on savings to those who can afford new EV models, rather than the wider population, who face higher taxes for being unable to upgrade.

It’s not just governments’ responsibility to make new markets for EVs sustainable, but for business to innovate within the area too. Drax Group CEO Will Gardiner recently said his company must help to “ensure no-one is left behind through the energy revolution”.

That’s a view welcomed by politicians from all sides of the political spectrum concerned not just about mitigating man-made climate change but also to ensure a ‘just transition’ during the economy’s decarbonisation.

Energy and Clean Growth Minister Claire Perry spoke at an Aldersgate Group event in London in January:

“It’s been very easy, in the past, for concerns about the climate to be dismissed as the worries of the few, not the many. Luckily, we’ve been able to strip out a lot of the myths surrounding decarbonisation and costs –but we have to be mindful that this is a problem which will have to be solved by the many, not just the middle class.”

Many countries have set ambitious targets for when the ban of new petrol and diesel vehicles will come into effect. Government involvement and subsidies will be crucial but may prove economically challenging in the longer term.

Explore the full reports:

Energy Revolution: A Global Outlook

I. Staffell, M. Jansen, A. Chase, E. Cotton and C. Lewis (2018). Energy Revolution: Global Outlook. Drax: Selby.

Energising Britain: Progress, impacts and outlook for transforming Britain’s energy system

I. Staffell, M. Jansen, A. Chase, C. Lewis and E. Cotton, (2018). Energising Britain: Progress, impacts and outlook for transforming Britain’s energy system. Drax Group: Selby.

 

Energy Revolution: A Global Outlook

5 December 2018

Carbon capture

Read the full report [PDF]

The global energy revolution

As a contribution to COP24, this report informs the debate on decarbonising the global energy system, evaluating how rapidly nations are transforming their energy systems, and what lessons can be learned from the leading countries across five energy sectors.

It was commissioned by power utility Drax Group, and delivered independently by researchers from Imperial College London and E4tech.

Clean power

  • Several countries have lowered the carbon content of their electricity by 100 g/kWh over the last decade. The UK is alone in achieving more than
    double this pace, prompted by strong carbon pricing.
  • China is cleaning up its power sector faster than most of Europe, however several Asian countries are moving towards higher-carbon electricity.
  • Germany has added nearly 1 kW of renewable capacity per person over the last decade. Northern Europe leads the way, followed by Japan, the US and China. In absolute terms, China has 2.5 times more renewable capacity than the US.

Fossil fuels

  • Two-fifths of the world’s electricity comes from coal. The share of coal generation is a key driver for the best and worst performing countries in clean power.
  • Coal’s share of electricity generation has fallen by one-fifth in the US and one-sixth in China over the last decade. Denmark and the UK are leading the way. Some major Asian nations are back-sliding.
  • Many European citizens pay out $100 per person per year in fossil fuel subsidies, substantially more than in the US or China. These subsidies are growing in more countries than they are falling.

Electric vehicles

  • In ten countries, more than 1 in 50 new vehicles sold are now electric. China is pushing ahead with nearly 1 in 25 new vehicles being electric and Norway is in a league of its own with 1 in 2 new vehicles now electric, thanks to strong subsidies and wealthy consumers.
  • There are now over 4.5 million electric vehicles worldwide. Two thirds of these are battery electric, one third are plug-in hybrids. China and the US together have two-thirds of the world’s electric vehicles and half of the 300,000 charging points.

Carbon capture and storage

  • Sufficient storage capacity has been identified for global CCS roll-out to meet climate targets, but large-scale CO2 capture only exists in 6 countries.
  • Worldwide, 5 kg of CO2 can be captured per person per year. The planned pipeline of CCS facilities will double this, but much greater scale-up is needed as this represents only one-thousandth of the global average person’s carbon footprint of 5 tonnes per year.

Efficiency

  • Global progress on energy intensity is mixed, as some countries improve efficiency, while others increase consumption as their population become wealthier.
  • Residential and transport changes over the last decade are mostly linked to the global recession and technological improvements, rather than behavioural shift.
  • BRICS countries consume the most energy per $ of output from industry. This is linked to the composition of their industry sectors (i.e. greater manufacturing and mining activity compared to construction and agriculture).

continued … [View PDF]

I. Staffell, M. Jansen, A. Chase, E. Cotton and C. Lewis (2018). Energy Revolution: A Global Outlook. Drax: Selby.

View press release:

UK among world leaders in global energy revolution

A price worth paying? Why the Treasury should maintain a higher carbon price

25 October 2018

Power generation

Last week it was Green GB Week, a nationwide campaign supported by the UK government, showcasing the country’s green credentials and progress in transitioning towards a low carbon world. It is therefore timely that ahead of the Autumn Budget, the energy industry should be speaking about measures, such as the Carbon Price Support mechanism, which are within the power of government to help keep Great Britain on track in meeting its decarbonisation goals.

Aurora Energy Research, a leading energy research and analytics firm, has produced fresh analysis that suggests that maintaining a higher carbon price is key to phasing out coal power generation and decarbonising the UK electricity sector in a timely, cost-effective manner. 

Is the carbon price at risk?

In April 2013, HM Treasury introduced the ‘Carbon Price Support’ – a tax paid by coal and gas generators in Great Britain. In part, this was a response to low costs in the European ‘Emissions Trading System’ which requires generators to buy certificates against their emissions. At the time, the UK Government felt that these certificates were too cheap and wanted to impose a higher carbon price to drive a more modern, low-carbon energy mix.

This Carbon Price Support has had a huge impact, particularly on coal. Prior to its introduction, coal represented 50% of power generation but since it has fallen to record lows. 2017 saw the first day without any coal on the power system since the industrial revolution. Records continue to be broken throughout 2018, with coal generation falling to 1% during summer months.

However, 2018 has also seen prices within the Emissions Trading System surge. Prices started this year at €8/tonne and now seem to be steadying at roughly €20/tonne. This has created uncertainty over the future of the UK Carbon Price Support scheme. Many in energy, from power generators to environmental campaign groups are worried that the Treasury might respond to rising European prices by slashing the Carbon Price Support in this year’s Autumn Budget, which could threaten to undo the success the UK has had in decarbonising its energy mix.

The carbon price is needed to keep coal at bay

Aurora has tested the impacts of different trajectories for the carbon price going forward to 2040 and the implications are significant, particularly for coal.

Aurora’s analysis shows that if government maintains the current Carbon Price Support rate of £18/tonne, then at current EU ETS futures levels, coal should come off the GB power system in 2021-22. By contrast, the same analysis suggests that if Chancellor Philip Hammond were to reduce the Carbon Price Support to £7/tonne, then coal power stations would stay on the system until 2025 and increase generation during that time, as illustrated below.

Source: Aurora Energy Research

This would make it difficult for the UK to meet its carbon targets. The UK government has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in line with 5-yearly ‘carbon budgets.’ Cutting the Carbon Price Support rate to £7/tonne would result in 29 million tonnes of additional carbon dioxide (CO2) during the 4th carbon budget period, which runs from 2023-27. This is an increase of almost 20% on total power sector emissions – against a carbon budget that the UK is currently on track to miss.

The cost of the carbon price

A higher carbon price raises electricity prices slightly, but the mechanics of this are complex and the rising price of electricity is somewhat offset by lower subsidy payments to low carbon generators. Comparing a ‘status quo’ scenario to one where the Carbon Price Support falls to £7/tonne raises annual power system costs by £700 million (average over 2021-40), which translates to roughly £9 a year on the average household’s electricity bill.

Source: Aurora Energy Research

Decarbonisation affects not just the future of GB’s power system, but also its international reputation and progress in meeting climate change targets. The Carbon Price Support has helped to make GB’s power system a success story in reducing carbon emissions while keeping costs reasonable.

There are always trade-offs to be made in policy but cutting the carbon price would threaten the progress Great Britain has made in decarbonising its energy mix, making it harder to meet emissions targets.

Download the report: Carbon Pricing Options to Deliver Clean Growth

Aurora’s press release: Clarity on carbon pricing is needed in Autumn Budget – a cut risks a resurgence of coal

Drax Power CEO Andy Koss’ comments on the Aurora report report 

Coal comeback pushes up UK’s carbon emissions

Iain Staffell, Imperial College London

17 September 2018

Opinion
UK coal production

10-year high gas prices1 have prompted a resurgence in coal-fired power across Britain – and with it a 15% increase in carbon emissions from electricity generation.

If coal-fired electricity remains cheaper than gas-fired (as analysts predict), we could see the first year-on-year rise in carbon emissions from Britain’s power sector in six years. This highlights the importance of retaining a strong carbon price if we are to ensure the successful decarbonisation of the power system is not reversed.

After dropping to a historic low of just 0.2 GW during June and July, Britain’s coal power generation doubled in August, and has shot up to 2 GW during the first week of September.  The last time coal output was this high was during the Beast from the East, when temperatures plummeted in March.

With these coal power stations running instead of more efficient gas plants, Britain is producing an extra 1,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) every hour.2  Carbon emissions from electricity generation are up 15% as a result.  These coal plants are not running solely because they are needed to meet peak demand, but because gas prices have risen sharply and carbon prices have not kept up, making coal power stations more economic to run than gas-fired ones.

It became cheaper to generate power from coal than from gas (see thick lines, chart below) in late August.  Even though carbon prices now double the cost of generating electricity from coal,3 coal plants are consistently “in the money” at the moment, meaning they can generate power profitably all day and night.

Estimated cost of generating electricity from coal and gas in Quarter 3 (thick lines), and the output from coal power stations in Britain (thin line)

Estimated cost of generating electricity from coal and gas in Quarter 3 (thick lines), and the output from coal power stations in Britain (thin line)

The cost of emitting CO2 has increased sharply, up 45% so far this year due to the ongoing rally in European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) prices.  Rising carbon prices should make gas more economical to burn as it emits less than half the CO2 of coal.

However, wholesale gas prices have also risen 40% since the start of the year, as supplies and storage are squeezed in the run up to winter.  Gas prices are at a ten-year high, currently 14% above their previous quarterly-average peak back in 2013 (see chart below).  These rising costs are feeding through into wholesale power prices, which have risen by a third over the past year to hit £60/MWh.

The cost of generating electricity and carbon cost

The estimated cost of generating electricity from fossil fuels over the last 20 years, along with the cost of emitting CO2.

Britain’s carbon price strengthened dramatically through 2014–15 due to the government implementing a Carbon Price Support scheme.  This caused gas to become competitive against coal for power generation, leading to carbon emissions from the power sector halving.  Unless Britain’s carbon price can once again make up the gap between coal and gas prices, we risk rolling back some of the world-leading gains made on cleaning up our electricity system.

The Committee on Climate Change has made it clear that power is the only sector that is pulling its weight when it comes to decarbonising the UK.  Clean electricity could power low-carbon vehicles and heating, but this opportunity will be wasted if the electricity comes from high-carbon coal.

UK electricity system

So what can be done?  The sharp rise in gas prices hints at a lack of flexibility in the energy system.  Britain came uncomfortably close to gas shortages in March, in part due to the closure of the country’s largest gas storage site.  With nearly half of the electricity generated in Britain coming from gas, plus five-sixths of household heat, diversifying into other – cleaner – energy sources would help insulate consumers and businesses from price spikes.

No one country has the power to determine international fuel prices.  Several factors have come together to push up gas prices, including a lack of transmission capacity, depleted stores of gas after the long hot summer and a lack of wind power increased output from gas-fired stations. Suppliers which don’t wish to be caught short after the Beast from the East, are also stocking up on gas.

Any knee-jerk reaction to try and lower the cost of electricity (for example, slashing the cost of carbon emissions) may only have a short-term impact, and could easily lead to longer-term damage (such as the resurgence of coal) which would require further interventions in the future.

Britain does have control over its carbon price. Its power stations and industry currently pay the Emissions Trading System price (determined on the Europe-wide market) which has fluctuated wildly over the past week between €25 (£22) and €19 (£17) per tonne, plus £18 per tonne in Carbon Price Support which goes to the Treasury.  This needs to be maintained or strengthened further to save the power system from backsliding, and to show strong climate leadership on the international stage.

Explore this data live on the Electric Insights website

View Drax Power CEO Andy Koss’ comment

Commissioned by Drax, Electric Insights is produced independently by a team of academics from Imperial College London, led by Dr Iain Staffell and facilitated by the College’s consultancy company – Imperial Consultants.

[1] The three-month average cost of generating electricity from gas exceeded £60/MWh for the first time since 2009.  Short-term price spikes have been higher than this, such as the first week of March during the Beast from the East.↩

[2] Extra generation from coal reduces the output from gas plants, which are their main competitors, as nuclear, wind and solar already run as much as possible.  Calculation based on 1934 MW of coal generation (the average during the first week of September) emitting 937 gCO2 per kWh (1812 tonnes per hour) instead of gas generation which would have emitted 394 gCO2 per kWh (762 tonnes per hour).↩

[3] The coal that must be burnt to produce 1 MWh of electricity now costs around £31, and the CO2 pollution costs an extra £31 on top.  For comparison, producing 1 MWh of electricity from gas costs £50 for the fuel and £15 for the CO2.↩

Great Britain is almost ready for coal-free summers

14 August 2018

Power generation

Every summer Great Britain uses less and less coal. This June the fossil fuel’s share of the electricity mix dipped below 1% for the first time ever – for 12 days it dropped all the way to zero.

Spurred on by the beginnings of an uncharacteristically dry, hot summer and a jump in solar generation, the possibility of the country going entirely coal-free for a full summer now looks more achievable than ever in modern times.

This is one of the key findings from Electric Insights, a quarterly report commissioned by Drax and written, independently, by researchers from Imperial College London. It found that across Q2 2018, there were as many coal-free hours as in the whole of 2016 and 2017 combined.

And while the report’s findings are hugely positive, they also hint at where development is still needed. What else does the performance of this quarter tell us about what we can expect in the power sector – in Great Britain and around the world?

Great Britain is slashing coal generation, the rest of the world needs to catch up

Great Britain has reduced its coal-fired power generation by four-fifths over the last five years. Last quarter the country’s coal fleet ran at just 3% of its 12.9 gigawatt (GW) capacity. Coal capacity is now lower than the capacity of solar PV panels (13.1 GW) installed nationwide, with the most recent decline resulting from Drax’s conversion of a fourth unit from coal to biomass.

When coal generation was running, it primarily provided system balancing services overnight in May and June rather than baseload electricity. However, this positive trend is not seen around the world.

The share of coal in national power systems during 2017

Globally, coal still provides 38% of the world’s electricity – the same amount it did 30 years ago. This comes despite efforts in Europe and North America to move away from coal, and growing investment into renewable generation and technologies.

Overall, Europe’s coal generation dropped from 39% to 22% over the last 30 years, despite some countries – such as Poland and Serbia – still drawing significant generation from the fossil fuel. The US has also reduced its coal generation from 57% to 31% over the past 30 years, as natural gas proves more economical, even in an era of pro-coal policies.

However, in the Middle East and Africa (which draw significant generation from their oil and gas reserves) and South America (where coal accounts for less than 3% of generation), total coal generation is growing. In fact, globally, only seven countries use less coal today than 30 years ago: Germany, Poland, Spain, Ukraine, the US, Great Britain and Canada.

Electric Insights attributes part of this global growth to the continued increase in demand for electricity, particularly in Asia. China, South Korea and Indonesia collectively burn 10 times more coal than they did 30 years ago. India’s coal habit has also increased over the past decade to account for 76% of its electricity generation, while Japan’s usage has grown from 15% to 34% in the same period.

As well as the stresses created by growing demand, this highlights a global disparity in the approach to decarbonising electricity systems, and a need for longer-term, environmentally and socially-conscious market-based initiatives that encourage meaningful movement to lower-carbon electricity sources, such as the UK and Canada’s Powering Past Coal Alliance.

Read the full articles here:

(Lack of) progress in global electricity generation

Britain edges closer to zero coal

Solar farm in South Wales

Decarbonisation is growing, but it’s going to get harder

Great Britain’s decline in coal use has rapidly accelerated its decarbonisation efforts. Annual coal power station emissions have shrunk over the past five years from 129 to 19 million tonnes of CO2 and helped reduce the average carbon intensity of electricity generation to a record low of 195 g/kWh last quarter.

However, this rapid pace of decarbonisation is unlikely to be sustained as growth in renewables faces a plateau, the country’s current nuclear capacity reaches retirement and the target of moving beyond coal by 2025 is completed.

Renewable sources now account for a steady 25% of annual electricity generation. These sources largely came onto the system through policies such as the government’s Renewables Obligation, which is now closed to entrants; Contracts for Differences, the future of which is uncertain for mature technologies like onshore wind and solar; and Feed-in Tariffs for roof-top solar installations which will close in April 2019. The end of these initiative paints a hazy picture of how future renewable capacity will be brought into the system.

Nuclear capacity also looks unlikely to expand at the rate needed to plug gaps in demand, with half of the country’s fleet expected to close for safety reasons by 2025. The Hinkley Point C nuclear power station, meanwhile, is only expected to come online at the end of that year.

Read the full article here:

Has Britain’s power sector decarbonisation stalled?

Ramsgate, Kent during summer 2018 heatwave

Weather will continue to play a major part in renewable generation

If the first quarter of 2018 was defined by low temperatures and heavy snowfall, the second quarter saw the impact of the opposite in weather conditions. From 23 June a heatwave set in around the country that saw temperatures increase by 3.3oC in a week, driving demand to jump 860 MW – the equivalent of an extra 2.5 million households, or an area the size of Scotland.

The increase in demand isn’t as drastic as when cold fronts hit, but if summers continue to get hotter this could change. Today, winter-time demand increases by 750 MW for every degree it drops below 14oC as electric heaters are plugged in to aid largely gas-based central-heating systems. When the mercury rises, however, demand increases by 350 MW for every degree rise over 20oC as businesses turn on air conditioning and the country’s refrigerators work harder.

These heatwave spikes are, at the moment, more easily dealt with than winter storms. While the Beast from the East saw demand reaching a peak of 53.3 GW, June’s topped out at 32.5 GW. The clear skies and long days of June also meant solar PV generation soared, making up for the ‘wind drought’ caused by the high-pressure weather. Wind output floated between 0.3 GW and 4.3 GW in June, far below its quarter peak to 13 GW. However, solar made up for this by peaking past 8 GW for 13 days in June and setting a new record of 9.39 GW at lunchtime on 27 June.

Read the full articles:

How the heat wave affects electricity demand

The summer wind drought and smashing solar

Explore the data in detail by visiting ElectricInsights.co.uk. Read the full report.

Commissioned by Drax, Electric Insights is produced, independently, by a team of academics from Imperial College London, led by Dr Iain Staffell and facilitated by the College’s consultancy company – Imperial Consultants.

Balancing for the renewable future

6 July 2018

Power generation

It’s not news to say Great Britain’s electricity system is changing. Low carbon electricity sources are on course to go from 22% of national generation in 2010 to 58% by 2020 as installation of wind and solar systems continue to grow.

But while there has been much change in the sources fuelling electricity generation, the system itself is still adapting to this transformation.

When the national grid was first established in the 1920s, it was designed with coal and big spinning turbines in mind. It meant that just about every megawatt coming onto the system was generated by thermal power plants. As a result, the mechanisms keeping the entire system stable – from the way frequency and voltage is managed to how to start up the country after a mass black out – relied on the same technology. These ‘ancillary services’ – those that stabilise the system – are crucial to maintaining a balanced electricity system.

“Ancillary services are needed to make sure demand is met by generation, and that generation gets from one place to the next with no interruptions,” explains Ian Foy, Head of Ancillary Services at Drax. “Because what’s important is that all demand must be met instantaneously.”

In today’s power system, however, weather dependent technology like offshore wind and home solar panels are increasingly making up the country’s electricity generation. Their intermittency or variability is, in turn, impacting both the stability of the grid and how ancillary services are provided.

Running a large power system with as much as 85% intermittent generation – for example on a very windy, clear, sunny day – is thought to be achievable. It isn’t a scenario anticipated for the large island of Great Britain. But to deal with the fast-pace of change on its power system which recently managed to briefly achieve  47% wind in its fuel mix, there is a need to develop new techniques, technologies and ways of working to change how the country’s grid is balanced.

New storage tech takes on balancing services

One of the technologies that’s expected to provide an increasing amount of balancing services is grid-scale batteries. One stabilisation function offered by batteries (and other electricity storage options) is to provide reserve  at times when demand peaks or troughs. This matches electricity demand and generation.

Combined with their ability to respond quickly to changes in frequency, batteries can be a significant source of frequency response.

Batteries can also absorb and generate reactive power, which can then be deployed to push voltage up or down when it starts to creep too far from the 400kV or 275kV target (depending on the powerlines the electricity is travelling along) needed to safely move electricity around the grid.

The challenge with batteries is that the quantity of megawatt hours (MWh) required to compensate for intermittency is very large. The difference between the peak and trough on any day may be more than 20 GW for several hours (see for yourself at Electric Insights).

The significant price reductions in battery storage apply to technologies with short duration (or low volume MWhs). These are the technologies which have been developed at scale recently but will probably struggle to make up in any large quantity any shortfalls in generation resulting from prolonged periods of low intermittent generation.

A challenge currently being addressed relates to maintenance of battery state of charge. This is a consequence of battery storage having a cycle efficiency of less than 100%. This means that losses from continuous charging and recharging will have to be replenished from the available generation to avoid batteries going empty and being unavailable for grid services.

Ultra-low carbon advances

Rather than relying on batteries to provide ancillary services to support intermittent generation, technical advancements are allowing the wind and solar facilities – which are generating more and more of the country’s electricity – to do so themselves.

The traditional photovoltaic (PV) inverters found on solar arrays were initially designed to push out as much active, or real, power as possible. However, new smart PV inverters are capable of providing or absorbing reactive power when it is needed to help control voltage, as well as continuing to provide active power.

The major advantage of smart inverters is the limited equipment update required to existing solar farms to allow them to offer reactive power control. The challenge here is that PV is embedded in distribution systems and therefore reactive services they provide may not cure all the problems on the transmission system.

Similarly, existing wind installations have traditionally focused on getting the greatest amount of megawatts from the available resources, but with fewer thermal power stations on the grid, ways of balancing the system with wind turbines are also being developed.

Inertia is the force that comes from heavy spinning generators and acts as a damper on the system to limit the rate of change of frequency fluctuations. While wind turbines have massive rotating equipment, they are not connected to the grid in a way that they automatically provide inertia, however, research is exploring what’s known as ‘inertial response emulation’ that may allow wind turbines to offer faster frequency response.

This works through an algorithm that measures grid frequency and controls the power output of a wind turbine or whole farm to compensate for frequency deviations or quickly provide increases or decreases in power on the system. Inertial response emulation cannot be a complete substitute for inertia but can reduce the minimum required inertia on the system.

Even in a future where the majority of the country’s electricity comes from renewable sources, thermal generators may still be able to provide benefits to the system by running in ‘synchronous compensation’ mode i.e. producing or consuming reactive power without real power.

However, what is vitally important for the future of balancing services in Great Britain is a healthy, transparent and investable market for generators, demand side response and storage, whether connected on the transmission or distribution networks.

A market for the future grid

One of the primary needs of balancing service providers is greater transparency into how National Grid procures and pays for services. Currently, National Grid does not pay for inertia. With it becoming more important to grid stability, incentive is needed to encourage generators with the capability to provide it. Those technologies that can’t provide inertia, could be encouraged to research and develop ways they could do so in the future.

Standardising the services needed will help ensure providers deliver balancing products to the same level needed to support the grid. It would also benefit from fixed requirements and timings for such services. Bundling related products, such as reserve and frequency control, and active power and voltage management, will also offer operational and cost efficiencies to the providers.

Driving investment in balancing services for the future, ultimately, requires the availability of longer-term contracts to offer financial certainty for the providers and their investors.

 

Bridge to the future

The energy mix -- table showing services which can be provided by different power technologies

Click to view larger graphic.

For the challenges of decarbonisation to be met in a socially responsible way, Great Britain’s power system must be operated at as low a cost as possible to consumers.

With new technologies, almost anything could be possible. But operating them has to be affordable. In many cases, it may take time for costs of long duration batteries to come down – as it has with the most recent offshore wind projects to take Contracts for Difference (CfDs) and Drax’s Unit 4 coal-to-biomass conversion under the Renewables Obligation (RO) scheme.

Thermal power technologies such as gas that has proven capabilities in ancillary services markets can at least be used in a transitional period over the coming decades until a low carbon solution is developed.

Biomass will continue to be an important source of flexible power. This summer, at Drax, biomass units are helping to balance the system. It is the only low carbon option which can displace the services provided by coal or gas entirely.


Drax Power Station’s control room. Viewing on a computer? Click above and drag. On a phone or tablet – just move your device.

In the past the race to decarbonisation was largely based around building as great a renewable capacity as possible. This approach has succeeded in significantly scaling up carbon-free electricity’s role on Great Britain’s electricity network. However, for the grid to remain stable in the wake of this influx, all parties must adapt to provide the balancing services needed.

This story is part of a series on the lesser-known electricity markets within the areas of balancing services, system support services and ancillary services. Read more about black start, system inertia, frequency response, reactive power and reserve power. View a summary at The great balancing act: what it takes to keep the power grid stable and find out what lies ahead by reading Maintaining electricity grid stability during rapid decarbonisation.

Joined at the volts: what role will interconnectors play in Great Britain’s electricity future?

14 June 2018

Power generation

For more than 50 years Great Britain has been electrically connected to Europe. The first under-sea interconnector between British shores and the continent was installed in 1961 and could transmit 160 megawatts (MW) of power. Today there is 4 gigawatts (GW) in interconnector capacity between Great Britain, France, Ireland and the Netherlands – and there’s more on the way.

By the mid-2020s some estimates suggest interconnector capacity will reach 18 GW thanks to new connections with Germany, Denmark and Norway. The government expects imports to account for 22% of electricity supply by 2025, up from 6% in 2017.

This increased connectivity is often held up as a means of securing electricity supply and while this is largely true, it doesn’t tell the full story.

In fact, this plan could risk creating a dependency on imported electricity at a time when flexibility and diversity of power sources are key to meeting demand in an increasingly decentralised, decarbonising system.

Great Britain needs to be connected and have a close relationship with its European neighbours, but this should not come at the expense of its power supply, power price or ongoing decarbonisation efforts. Yet these are all at risk with too great a reliance on interconnection.

To secure a long term, stable power system tomorrow, these issues need to be addressed today.

Unfair advantage

At their simplest, interconnectors are good for the power system. They connect the relatively small British Isles to a significant network of electricity generators and consumers. This is good for both helping secure supply and for broadening the market for domestic power, but the system in which interconnectors operate isn’t working.

Since 2015 interconnectors have had the right to bid against domestic generators in the government’s capacity market auctions.

The government uses these auctions to award contracts to generators that can provide electricity to the grid through existing or proposed facilities. The original intention was also to allow foreign generators to participate. As an interim step, the transmission equipment used to supply foreign generators’ power into the GB market – interconnectors – have been allowed to take part. In practice, interconnectors end up with an economic advantage over other electricity producers.

Firstly, interconnectors are not required to pay to use the national transmission system like domestic generators are. This charge is paid to National Grid to cover the cost of installation and maintenance of the substations, pylons, poles and cables that make up the transmission network. Plus the cost of system support services keeping the grid stable. Interconnectors are exempt from paying these despite the fact imported electricity must be transported and balanced within England, Scotland and Wales in the same way as domestic electricity.

Secondly, interconnectors don’t pay carbon tax in the GB energy market. The Carbon Price Floor is one of the cornerstones of Great Britain’s decarbonisation efforts and has enabled the country’s electricity system to become the seventh least carbon-intense of the world’s most power intensive systems in 2016, up from 20th in 2012.

Interconnectors themselves do not emit carbon dioxide (CO2) in Great Britain, but this does not mean they are emission-free. France’s baseload electricity comes largely from its low-carbon nuclear fleet, but the Netherlands and Ireland are still largely dependent on fossil fuels for power. Because the European grid is so interconnected even countries which don’t yet have a direct link to Great Britain, such as Germany with its high carbon lignite power stations, also contribute to the European grid’s supply. The Neuconnect link is planned to connect Germany and GB in the late 2020s.

Not being subject to the UK’s carbon tax – only to the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) which puts a much lower price on CO2 – imported power can be offered cheaper than domestic, lower-carbon power. This not only puts Great Britain at risk of importing higher carbon electricity in some cases, but also exporting carbon emissions to our neighbours when their power price is higher to that in the GB market..

This prevents domestic generators from winning contracts to add capacity or develop new projects that would secure a longer-term, stable future for Great Britain. In fact, introducing more interconnectivity could in some cases end up leading to supply shortages, be they natural or market induced.

Under peak pressure

The contracts awarded to interconnectors in the capacity market auctions treat purchased electricity as guaranteed. But, any power station can break down – any intermittent renewable can stop generating at short notice. Supply from neighbouring countries is just the same.

Research by Aurora found that historically, interconnectors have often delivered less power than the system operator assumed they would and on occasion exported power at times of peak demand. This happened recently during the Beast of the East, when low temperatures across the continent drove electricity demand soaring.

This European-wide cold spell meant Ireland and France (which has a largely electrified heating system) experienced huge electricity demand spikes, driving power prices up.

As a result, for much of the time between 27 and 28 February Great Britain exported electricity to France to capitalise on its high prices. This not only led to more fossil fuels being burned domestically, but it meant less power was available domestically at a time when our own demand was exceptionally high. Even when the interconnectors do flow in our direction they cannot provide crucial grid services like inertia so our large thermal power stations are often still needed.

It is difficult to say for certain how interconnectors will function during times of high demand in the future due to a lack of long-term data, but that which we do know and have seen suggests they don’t always play to the country’s best interests.

There is still an important role for interconnectors on the Great Britain grid, but to deliver genuine value the system needs to be fairer so they don’t skew the market.

Where interconnectors fit into the future

Interconnectors bring multiple benefits to our power system. They can help with security of supply by bringing in more power at times of systems stress, with the right system in place they can help reduce the need to rely on domestic fossil fuels and enable more renewable installation, and if electricity is being generated cheaper abroad, they can also create opportunities to reduce costs for consumers.

However, the correct framework must be put in place for interconnectors to bring such benefits while allowing for domestic projects that can help secure the country’s electricity supply.

As a start, interconnectors should be reclassified – known as de-rating – to compete with technologies on an equal footing.

Drax’s proposed OCGT plants, which can very quickly start up and provide the grid with the power and balancing services it needs, before switching off again, could offer a more reliable route to grid stability than such overwhelming dependence on interconnectors will. In addition, the coal-to-gas and battery plans at Drax Power Station, would prove to be a highly flexible national asset.

New gas and interconnectors should be able to compete fairly with one another. Policymakers should facilitate a system that allows competing technologies to exist in a cost beneficial way. Both interconnectors and domestic thermal power generators can play their part in creating stability, transitioning towards a decarbonised economy and fitting within the UK’s industrial strategy.

In 1961, when the first interconnector was switched on it marked a new age of continental co-operation. Five decades on we should not forget this goal. In an ever more complex grid, what we need is different technologies, systems and countries working together to achieve a flexible, stable and cleaner power system for everyone.